When is a third wave of Covid-19 likely to hit India? Experts dissect possible factors

As India battles the second wave of the Covid-19, some experts have already raised the possibility of a third wave of the pandemic. Several countries have already witnessed the fourth wave of Covid-19. But as India struggles to contain the deadly second wave, when is the inevitable third wave projected to hit the country?

"Mostly in the winter, sometime in the end of November or early December (this year). Ensuring that all the vulnerable are vaccinated before the festive season of Diwali is important to save as many lives," said Dr Giridhar Babu, epidemiologist and professor at the Indian Institute of Public Health in Bengaluru, and a member and advisor to the National Covid-19 Task Force in Karnataka. "The next wave will affect mostly younger age groups," he warned.

There are various factors that the third wave could ride on. "Depends on several factors in the period from now till December - The proportion of vaccinated people, prevention of super spreader events and all types of crowds, and how early we can detect newer variants and limit them to local areas," said Dr Babu.

Speaking on the factors that could precipitate the third wave in India, Professor M Vidyasagar, the government's mathematical modeling expert, said, "Even though, in the second wave, a fairly large number of people could have been infected, there are also those that remain untested, people who are generally asymptomatic and infected. These are the people who are going to remain immune for at least 6 months. However, they will begin to lose immunity towards that period. So, that is when we need to have our vaccination program well-underway, as even if they begin to lose their immunity, they should not remain susceptible to catch the virus."

ALSO READ | Just before 2nd Covid wave hit India, ICU beds decreased by 46%, oxygen ones by 36%

"So if we vaccinate a substantial part of the at-risk population in about 6 months, then the third wave could wind up being a third bump rather than the horrific wave that we are seeing now," he said.

AGGRESSIVE VACCINATION CAN HELP

Dr Babu said the government needs to finalise a plan for managing multiple waves of Covid-19. "Even in states where technical experts advised an imminent second wave, nothing changed much due to other competing priorities. We need an action plan for enhancing vaccination coverage through strong microplanning, intensive mobilisation and effective communication strategies," he said.

"Sustainable solutions should be implemented while emerging out of the second wave. We need an aggressive containment strategy to reduce the number of cases and deaths. While doing this, it is imperative to step up testing to isolate people as soon as possible. District laboratories set up under the Integrated Disease Surveillance Project should be strengthened through enhanced infrastructure, a permanent workforce and sustained funding. The prime minister has already announced an oxygen generation plant in every district hospital," he said.

ALSO READ | South India's N440K Covid variant 15 times more lethal

LAGGARD VACCINATION IN INDIA

As per government data, India’s cumulative vaccination coverage now exceeds 16.24 crore doses. Only a little more than 2.30 lakh beneficiaries of the 18-44 age group have been vaccinated in the last 24 hours. More than 18.9 lakh vaccine doses have been administered in the last 24 hours for those above that age bracket on the 110th day since the vaccination for the priority age group began.

Presently, India has only vaccinated about 11% of its population with the first dose of the vaccine at least. Daily vaccination targets are also barely crossing the 4-5 million mark, only in a few days. There is also a shortage of vaccine doses being reported from many states. Contributing also is the daily struggle to book an appointment through CoWin platform, which has also marred the vaccination for those above 45.

After the second wave of Covid-19, it is "inevitable" that India will also see a third wave, said Prof K Vijay Raghavan, the principal scientific advisor to the Central government.

Addressing a press briefing, Prof Raghavan said in the wake of the changing nature of variants, we must be ready for the third wave. "We can't predict the timing, but it seems inevitable. We must prepare ourselves and be ready for it," he said.

Prof Raghavan said while vaccines were effective against coronavirus variants, the scientific community needs to keep working on vaccines and make changes accordingly.

"Why should we care about SARS-CoV-2 (the virus causing Covid-19) when we can potentially upgrade vaccines? It is only sometimes that variants can erode immunity so rapidly. We need to make a map of all possible changes that could happen to the virus. Scientists are working to anticipate variants," he said.

THIRD WAVE TO AFFECT CHILDREN MORE THAN ADULTS

Reports now suggest that children could be at a higher risk of getting infected in the third wave of Covid-19. It is plausible, since most adults will have received at least one shot of the jab by the time we see the third wave hit India. We still don't have a Covid-19 vaccine for children in India.

'SECOND WAVE LIKELY TO PEAK BY MAY 7'

On Tuesday, in an interview with India Today TV, Prof M Vidyasagar said India could see the peak of the second wave of Covid-19 by May 7.

"If you take the nation as a whole, our prediction is that we may see a decline coming by the end of this week, which is by about May 7. Cases should start declining, but different states will peak at different times. The nationwide and cumulative total is at the peak now or is very, very close to that," he said.

If the predictions hold true, it would be a huge relief for the country to cross the national peak of the second wave by this weekend.

"We take the seven-day rolling average because the daily numbers keep fluctuating. As a result, we should not just look at the raw numbers but also at a daily moving average. That number will begin to decline by the end of the present week," Prof Vidyasagar said.

ALSO WATCH | Third Covid wave inevitable: Govt's scientific advisor