Ajit Singh's expulsion from Janata Dal causes uncertainty

V.P. Singh with Ajit: Trading charges

Christmas brought little cheer to the beleaguered at chief. After weeks of wavering, on December 26 the Janata Dal leadership finally decided to get tough with the rebel in its midst. And, in a drastic follow up to the show cause notice served on him 10 days earlier, expelled Ajit Singh from the party fold.

Ajit knew he had it coming. The only surprise element in the expulsion was that Biju Patnaik, the one person Ajit had counted on, also fell in line with the party stand. That indeed was V.P. Singh's coup d'etat.

At the Political Affairs Committee (PAC) meeting held at party chief S.R. Bommai's Lodhi Road house, the leadership patiently heard Patnaik through. But the verdict had already been decided on and the PAC exercise was conducted merely to placate the Orissa patriarch.

If the Jat leader now finds himself adrift, he has only himself to blame. Ajit effectively burnt his boats by not putting in a conciliatory appearance at the PAC meeting. Patnaik. who had prevailed upon the leadership to defer action till December 26 on the understanding that Ajit would come around by them, felt let down. And quietly went along with V.P. Singh.

Ajit tried to make amends the next morning by calling on Patnaik. But his defence of his protege this time was obviously watered down. And V.P. Singh stood his ground, declaring: "The tight is not between individuals. He fought the party by splitting it in Uttar Pradesh; he will have to go now."

But Ajit cannot hope to pull off a repeat of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly split in the Lok Sabha. And despite his tall claims, not more than 12 Janata Dal MPs back him in the House. In order to escape the anti-defection law, the Ajit group requires 20 MPs - one third the party's strength of 59 in the House - to effect a technical split (see box).

It is this fear of disqualification that has deterred many partymen critical of V.P. Singh from switching allegiance to Ajit. Even Patnaik said: "Ajit must realise he is not Charan Singh. He has a long way to go before he can command that kind of support."

There is a considerable middle ground in the party. The socialists, for instance, want to avoid a split at any cost and were willing to soft-pedal the Ajit issue. George Fernandes, who did not attend the PAC meeting, played the peacemaker and advised Ajit to hold his horses.

His group is also unhappy with the partisan way in which V.P. Singh handled the crisis. Once the notice was served, V.P. Singh broke his long silence to lash out at the renegade: "It would be better to patch up with the Congress(I) than with its agent."

There seems to be some truth in that assertion. Soon after the general elections, Ajit had called on V.P. Singh and mooted the idea of forging an alliance with their bete noire, the Congress(I). Recalls V.P. Singh: "He said we should tie up with Sharad Pawar, join the Government and when public disenchantment begins, take over the party."

Ajit kept hobnobbing with Pawar, Madhavrao Scindia, V.C. Shukla and Rajesh Pilot. And one cabinet minister even quotes Ajit as saying: "Look, the Congress(I) is finished in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. I could fill that role for your party."

While the Ajit camp denies plans of joining the Congress(I), Ajit's options are limited. He will either join the Congress(I) - if he gets the requisite number of MPs - or try to revive the Lok Dal(A). His lieutenants are confident of at least 30 party MPs backing him. Says Rasheed Masood: "I am with Ajit, no matter what the consequences."

How many others are willing to come out as strongly in his defence is the moot question. The chances are that the answer is not what Ajit Singh would like to hear.